October 20, 2004
Regular readers are well aware that I think this election is over, that George W. Bush will be reelected. There are two reasons why I think this is the case:Further analysis on the black electorate and the remainder of the election process can be found at The Horserace Blog, which has now found a place in the blogroll.1. Kerry is going to under-perform badly among black voters relative to GoreÂ’s performance in 2000.
2. Bush is going to over-perform among Catholics relative to his performance in 2000.Two weeks ago, the latest Pew Poll came out showing Kerry enjoying 70% support among blacks. Just today The Center for Policy and Economic Studies announced that in their poll, Kerry enjoyed 69% support among blacks compared to 18% for Bush. They conducted a similar poll at the same point in the 2000 race. It showed Gore 74%, Bush 9%. According to this poll, then, Kerry is underperforming among blacks by roughly 14% of the vote, a statistically significant difference. What would that mean if these numbers hold for the next month?
Posted by: mhking at
11:23 AM
| Comments (2)
| Add Comment
Post contains 214 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: Sharp as a Marble at October 20, 2004 12:28 PM (VxPRK)
Posted by: Gol at October 22, 2004 05:39 AM (8FL1r)
41 queries taking 0.421 seconds, 96 records returned.
Powered by Minx 1.1.6c-pink.